The probability is ZERO!
As long as there are planets with atmospheres containing greenhouse gases orbiting stars, there will be a balance of inputs from solar radiation, and the re-radiated energy which goes back into space from the planet!
There will be an imbalance heating the planet above the temperature of a planet without an atmosphere, for as long as the star is hotter than the planet!
The human population, can however vary the content of Earth’s atmosphere by burning fossil carbon, leaking greenhouse gases from industries, altering the landscape around carbon sinks such as peat-bogs, swamps, forests, and oceans, or using agricultural systems which generate methane or release CO2 from soils.
Fortunately scientific research has provided us with tools to measure and mitigate these effects!
Huge plumes of the warming gas methane have been mapped globally for the first time from oil and gas fields using satellites.
Plugging these leaks would be an important step in buying extra time to curb climate change.
The new research found plumes covering vast areas, sometimes stretching to 200 miles – the leaks are thought to be mostly unintended.
Last year, about 100 countries promised to cut methane emissions by 2030.
- Thomas Lauvaux
“We knew about individual gas blow-outs before, but this work shows the true methane footprint of oil and gas operations around the planet,” explains Riley Duren, an author of the paper and CEO of Carbon Mapper which tracks methane emissions.
Methane usually leaks from oil and gas facilities during maintenance operations, while fixing a valve or pipeline, for example, or from compressor stations – facilities that maintain the flow and pressure of natural gas.
It is also produced by landfill, agriculture and in coal production. This research focused on detecting oil and gas leaks that can be plugged if companies invest in prevention.
Scientists believe that cutting methane emissions is an “easy win” in tackling climate change, because it’s a very potent gas usually released by humans in leaks that can be stopped relatively easily.
An IPCC study last year suggested that 30-50% of the current rise in temperatures is down to methane.
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There is a UK example here which shows a win-win result from using this technology!
Major UK methane greenhouse gas leak spotted from space
The leak – seen by satellite – occurred over a three-month period at a gas main operated by Wales and West Utilities. The amount leaked could have powered 7,500 homes for a year.
Satellite detection shows the potential of picking up methane gas leaks quickly so they can be stopped sooner.
It was detected by Leeds University with the help of specialist satellites.
Emily Dowd, a PhD researcher at the university’s School of Earth and Environment and the National Centre for Earth Observation, had been using satellite imagery to assess methane leaks from landfill sites.
But she noticed on the images the distinct marker of a methane leak some miles away, coming from a gas pipeline owned by Wales and West Utilities.
Currently, methane leaks are detected through routine on-the-ground surveys – a very challenging prospect when there are thousands of miles of pipes and sites.
Jean-Francois Gauthier, senior vice-president for strategy at GHGSat, told the BBC: “It’s important to highlight that satellites are just one piece of the puzzle. But satellites have a very unique value… that they can come back [and collect more images] very frequently and they can do so without the need to deploy people on the ground so they can do so effectively and also affordably.”
The company has nine satellites in their constellation, which orbit at 500km overhead, and are some of the highest resolution devices able to see gases at 25m resolution.
The company has recently signed a £5.5m partnership with the UK – funded by the UK Space Agency – to provide satellite data on methane emissions to UK organisations such as Ordnance Survey.
With the current shortages of natural gas in Europe, and the high energy prices, it makes good economic sense to find more efficient ways to quickly detect and fix leaks!